《 Let the financial report speak 》 Reading notes and after reading .
《 Let the financial report speak 》 Reading notes
- 《 Let the financial report speak 》1. Let the financial statements speak
- 《 Let the financial report speak 》2. First knowledge of financial statements
- 《 Let the financial report speak 》3. Balance sheet
- 《 Let the financial report speak 》4. How to identify financial fraud
- 《 Let the financial report speak 》5. Cash flow is the lifeline of an enterprise
- 《 Let the financial report speak 》6. A business that can raise its price is a good business
- 《 Let the financial report speak 》7. How to improve the operation efficiency of enterprises
- 《 Let the financial report speak 》8. What can the improvement of turnover bring to the enterprise
- 《 Let the financial report speak 》9. The secret of high growth of enterprises ！ Return on equity
Let the financial report speak , Yesterday we talked about the return on net assets , After tax net profit is higher than net assets , That is, the profitability of the owner's equity part of the enterprise minus liabilities , Just how strong . His strongest point is that he can be separated 3 A situation , It can become net interest rate X Turnover of total assets X Equity multiplier , That's what you get 3 Class company , Mainly selling goods , They are all net interest rate models , Make money by commodities , All channels are in the mode of volume , Rely on the turnover rate of total assets to make money , There are also financial enterprises , Make money by leveraging , This set of analysis logic , Also called DuPont analysis . It was first used by American DuPont , It is a set of enterprise performance , More classic analysis model .
Next, let's take a look at the case of DuPont analysis , LETV announced 2016 Annual financial report , Results show that 2016 year , LETV lost a lot , It's even scarier , His operating profit , from 2013 In, it fell year by year , here we are 2016 year , Start losing money . In contrast, the capital expenditure of the company , It reached its highest point , Probably 55 One hundred million yuan , The cash flow from operating activities is -10 Billion , All this is caused by the new industry he is involved in . His operation ability , There are also big problems , The total asset turnover rate has also reached 3 The lowest year , in other words , With the growth of total assets , Revenue has not improved , This is very doubtful . A little contrary to common sense . The equity multiplier is still rising , It shows that his asset liability ratio continues to increase , Borrow more and more money , Even year-on-year growth 2 times . It has brought huge risks to the company's operation . Because suddenly there is no profit , The inflection point of return on net assets is also 2017 In, there was a cliff like decline , Later, in fact, the news broke , Let's talk about the earnings of LETV in the past few years , Basically not true . So his collapse may not be accidental . Even Lao Qi didn't understand LETV , I also voted for LETV , Later I saw sunhongbin bring it 100 $ , LETV's shares changed hands a lot , But the share price did not rise , I knew there must be a problem . Because the market environment was good at that time , So there should not be so much pessimism , So what are the factors , Let LETV investors , Ignore such great benefits , Something must have happened that I don't know . So clear it all decisively . Later, as expected , There are huge problems . For this matter , Lao Qi also made a deep self-examination , It's not that you didn't lose money , Even made money on it , You're right , Buying such a company is a mistake in itself . The biggest mistake is , For the rationality of LETV's cash flow , Lack of sufficient argument . in other words , LETV always says that it is a profitable video website , But this profit , Compare with other companies in the industry , Obviously a little different . gross profit , Net profit , And cash flow , It's all different from peers . Logically speaking, Lao Qi was born in Internet video , This should not be neglected .
Now let's look at solvency , Said before the , Many business failures are caused by the rupture of cash flow . It's not because the business doesn't make money . The most famous example , Basically, they are in a big loss , For example, Shi Yuzhu , When the giant building was built , Be carried away by victory and honor , Original cover 18 Layer plan , Finally added 78 layer , As a result, the amount of funds broke , Overnight, the giant group collapsed , Shi Yuzhu is in debt 2.5 Billion , Almost committed suicide , Fortunately, later with the help of friends , Shi Yuzhu slowed down , After that, the whole person also kept a low profile .
The long-term debt capacity of an enterprise is called the asset liability ratio , That is, total liabilities divided by total assets , The higher the asset liability ratio , Then the equity multiplier of the enterprise will be higher , So it means , If the enterprise has certain profits , The return on net assets is usually not very low . But if the enterprise is at a loss , Then the financial cost will bring down the enterprise . So generally, enterprises with high profit margin , It is understandable that the asset liability ratio is higher , Enterprises with low profit margins , People with high debts should be very careful . Of course, enterprises that do not borrow at all are not particularly good , It means they waste efficiency . The author said that the asset liability ratio should have a certain degree of assurance , And this degree , Is to ensure that there is no debt repayment crisis , The debt ratio should be raised as much as possible . But Lao Qi thought , In fact, this is a double-edged sword , Once the debt ratio increases , It's probably out of control . For example, Evergrande , He used to think he had no problem , There will be no crisis , But later it was out of control .
If you stand in the perspective of creditors , We should know a common sense , If the assets are auctioned in bankruptcy , The selling price may be less than the book value 50%, Therefore, if the asset liability ratio is higher than 50%, Then the interests of creditors will lack protection . Of course, there are also assets , What is it , The value loss of the house is still slightly smaller , Some equipment , Maybe the discount is too big . Some can give book value 1-2 Discount is good .
If you stand on the position of shareholders , The profit margin exceeds the interest , Then you should borrow more debt , In this way, leverage can be added to enlarge profits , contrary , If the profit margin is lower than the cost of capital , Then the profit will decrease . Would rather not do , No more leverage . Buffett thinks , Stocks purchased by investors , The debt ratio must be low , The higher the debt ratio of the company , The greater the risk of your investment . Generally good enterprises , Rarely a large proportion of debt , They disdain making dangerous money , There is no need to take such risks again . Even your own money , Can't spend it .
From the perspective of the operator , The amount of debt is related to the vitality of the enterprise , Enterprises with higher liabilities , May be in an expansion period , It's simple , At least it means , He also has a need for capital , Still exploring the market , Some enterprises don't need that much money anymore , Or we can't find too many business development directions . So the debt ratio is naturally low .
When we look at the debt ratio of an enterprise , In fact, we should read the attitude of the managers of this company , What on earth do they think of the company , Invest heavily at all costs , Are there any projects they are particularly optimistic about . For example, there is a first share , This is a real estate company ,2017 Mid term , Both his revenue and profits have declined significantly , Operating income 112 Billion , Year-on-year decline in 10%, Net profit 3 Billion , Even lower 66%, The culprit is high debt ,2013 Since then , The first share is actively expanding . Expand the land reserve in Beijing , But at that time, the price of land was very expensive , This has eaten up the funds of many companies , So that the enterprise debt ratio has been relatively high .2013 The annual asset liability ratio has reached 83%. Then the gross profit margin of the project began to decline . Later, perpetual bonds were issued , This has also dragged down the company's profit performance . Later, it caught up with the regulation of the property market , So the payment collection has been bad . Deduct non net profits in recent years , It has always been negative growth . But he is actually in the real estate industry , It is still a good living enterprise , At least there are profits , Operating cash flow is also positive . That is, the stock price performance is terrible .
The short-term solvency of the enterprise , Focus on two indicators , One is the current ratio , One is called quick ratio , The current ratio is very direct , Current assets to current liabilities , See what you can realize in your hands , Whether it can cover the money you are about to change . Of course, the higher the current ratio, the better , It shows that the safer the enterprise , Generally, when you read the financial report , This indicator is better in 2 More than times , in other words , Hold... In your hand 200 Yuan , Then meet 100 Yuan debt , I don't panic . Quick freezing ratio , That is, the ratio of quick assets to current liabilities , Quick assets is equal to current assets minus inventory and then minus a prepayment , That's because the liquidity of inventory is relatively poor , If you want to be able to sell , I'm afraid it's already sold . Prepayments are the same , In fact, you can't move this money . So get rid of him both , The numbers you get , Be more secure . The quick ratio is not less than 1 Just go , The meaning is , Those assets you have that are best realized , It is enough to cover short-term debt .
In our capital market , There is a major case , The Lantian incident , Lantian shares was found out by others for being suspected of fraud , At that time, Lantian was an old blue chip stock , His current assets are 4.3 One hundred million yuan , Current liabilities 5.66 Billion , So it is basically a dangerous financial indicator , There is huge debt repayment pressure . His quick freezing rate is insufficient 0.35, This proves that Lantian shares have almost 1.3 Billion working capital gap . A professor compared his financial data with those of similar companies , It's very strange to find these , And illogical , The income of Lantian shares is significantly higher than that of its peers , But current assets, especially accounts receivable , But it is obviously lower than the industry average . Proportion of fixed assets and inventory , Are obviously higher than their peers . in addition , His super high income , Did not bring cash flow income to Lantian shares , It only brings about the expansion of the scale of fixed assets , And the increase in inventory . If it is a short-term phenomenon, it is easy to explain , But this phenomenon has been maintained for many years , So there must be something fishy , Once this article is published , It caused a stir , The bank began to suspend loans , Lantian's capital chain is broken . Then he was suspended . After investigation, it was found that he was a financial fraud .
The author says , Solvency , It is equivalent to the one vote veto index of the enterprise , Other indicators are excellent , As long as the debt repayment index is not good , Also cannot invest .
In fact, over the years , Our capital market has been improved to a considerable extent , Value investment is becoming more and more mainstream , Look at the financial report , Looking for value , It is also favored by more and more investors . But to tell the truth, Lao Qi , At present in China The quality of investors is still not high , So it leads to our fluctuations , It should be significantly larger . But it is precisely because of the huge fluctuations , So value investors have more room for excess returns .
Finally, let's sort it out , What is a good company , A good company is , The business model is stable , Gross profit is stable , And relatively high , At least higher than the level of peers , But it can't be too high , Several orders of magnitude higher . Profit mainly comes from sales revenue , And good company sales , It should be diverse , Do not rely too much on some big customers . The main business income should be prominent , Interest expense is not much , The cost is also significantly lower than that of peers . In the balance sheet , Don't go into debt . Assets grow every year . But I won't take the money I earn , All invested in fixed assets , Healthy cash flow , Basically match the profit . There is foreign investment , The company has ambition to expand , You can also see good results .
Finally, on the business model , Try to choose those who can have pricing power , Companies with high industry concentration , Even if the industry declines , Head office , It will also expand within the industry .
This is the whole content of the book , Now you can find a financial statement , Practice well . It's normal not to understand , First go to companies with the simplest business model , Analyze . Slowly expand your ability circle . Tomorrow we start a new study