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AI · the future

2022-06-27 11:36:39Reading notes

AI· future , Your job will be AI Instead of ?AI The tide is unstoppable , Where should we go ? Dr. Kaifu Li, a famous AI scientist , It will deeply analyze the general trend of the artificial intelligence era in the next decade , Decipher the real AI crisis , Exploring human and AI A blueprint for coexistence .

AI· future

AI· future value

Your job will be AI Instead of ?AI The tide is unstoppable , Where should we go ? Dr. Kaifu Li, a famous AI scientist , It will deeply analyze the general trend of the artificial intelligence era in the next decade , Decipher the real AI crisis , Exploring human and AI A blueprint for coexistence .

AI· future Reading harvest

  • Find ways to improve your competitiveness , Avoid being eliminated

  • Understand the future of global artificial intelligence

  • Understand the disruptive impact of science and technology on all mankind

  • Learn to cope with the AI revolution of creation and destruction

AI· future Selected golden sentences

1. How will artificial intelligence develop in the future , The most important factor is how people act .

2. Artificial intelligence is powerful , And the unique love of human beings is what we need most in our life .

3. The advent of deep learning , It means that we will change from the age of experts to the age of data .

AI· future

AI· future Author's brief introduction

Li Kaifu

Dr. Kaifu Li is the founder and CEO of Innovation workshop , President of Artificial Intelligence Engineering Institute of Innovation workshop , I have won 10 US patents . Dr. Kaifu Lee was the vice president of Google worldwide and President of Greater China , By 《 Time 》 The weekly magazine named the "global influence" 100 One of the people of the year .2019 year 1 month 23 Japan , The world economic forum was established “AI The committee ”, Dr. Kai Fu Lee is the co chairman .

fine Hua Explain read

The following is 《AI· future 》 An interpretation of the essence of a Book , For the majority of book friends to learn reference , Welcome to share , It cannot be used for commercial purposes without permission .

AI· future Text

2017 year 5 month 27 Japan , An artificial intelligence and human “ War ” Attracted the eyes of the whole world . Human go player Ke Jie is working with artificial intelligence machines AlphaGo In the go duel of , Use all your brains and tactics , As always 0:3 The score of was a disastrous defeat .

The triumph of artificial intelligence has triggered a worldwide discussion , Will artificial intelligence bring about a new round of industrial revolution ? Will you defeat mankind ? Facing the irresistible wave of artificial intelligence , Many countries have increased their R & D and investment in artificial intelligence , China surpassed the United States for the first time in this data , Entrepreneurs all over the world are also trying to remain invincible in this wave .

The age of artificial intelligence has come .

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One 、 China's Internet entrepreneurship battlefield

1. imitation

In the initial stage of the Internet in China , Innovative companies will draw heavily on Silicon Valley websites , This will help improve the basic engineering and entrepreneurial skills that China lacked at that time . for example , Wang Xing, the founder of meituan, created meituan, a group buying website , Just follow the example of the United States Facebook Created “ xiaonei ”, Later, due to financial and other reasons , Forced to sell , The new owner renamed it “ Renren.com ”. Mr Wang is in 2007 Come back in , imitation Twitter Created “ Rice no ”, Zeng Hongji once , And then went bankrupt .

2010 year , Wang Xing imitates Groupon( American group buying website ) Business model of , Launch group buying websites in China “ Meituan ”. After years of unremitting efforts , Meituan has become one of the largest Internet companies in China .

This kind of entrepreneur who is good at imitation , Learn from foreign advanced experience , Although the practice has been criticized and satirized by many Silicon Valley elites , But you can't help saying that he is successful .

2. localization

For early Internet companies , Imitation is the first step , The second step is to localize the product . When China's Internet products compete directly with Silicon Valley's original products , The reluctance of American companies to localize their products has become the biggest opportunity for Chinese entrepreneurs .

 

Ma in 1999 Alibaba group was founded in ,2002 The world's largest e-commerce leader in eBay And entered our country , This is undoubtedly the biggest threat to Ali . When eBay March into our country on a large scale , Buy eBay , When building e-commerce giants , Ma Yun adjusted the business model of e-commerce websites according to the actual situation of our country .

In the process , He founded Taobao , Direct sum eBay Core business competition ; And created Alipay , It overcomes users' lack of trust in online shopping ; Ma Yun's biggest weapon is the creation of “ free + Value added service ” Our revenue model : Basic features are free , Value added service charge . And then , stay eBay There is a charge for publishing goods on , There is also a charge for goods sold . Soon , Ma Yun, who is familiar with Chinese users, shot a fatal shot : Make sure the next 3 year , It is completely free to publish goods on Taobao , It soon became free indefinitely .

 

eBay Issued a press release to teach Ma Yun a lesson :“ Free is not a business model ”. The fact proved that , Free can be a business model , Ma Yun has achieved great success . When the market is big enough , Big sellers have to pay for advertising and search rankings , And well-known brands are bound to pay more , In the more advanced brother website of Taobao “ Tmall ” Selling goods . Within a year ,eBay Completely withdraw from our market .

3. killing

Beat the American companies that didn't want to localize , China's Internet entrepreneurs can't relax , Because what they have to face is a more brutal fight among their domestic counterparts . In the market where imitation and reference are common , Entrepreneurs can only choose to work harder than their competitors , Implementation is more in place . So-called “ Thousand regiment war ” It's the best example .

 

When the American group buying website Groupon In a short span of 16 It broke through within months 10 Market value of US $100 million , And cause a sensation at home and abroad , Entrepreneurs in China are moved by the wind . Plus our buyers are obsessed with discounts , Bargaining is an art . therefore , Thousands of group buying companies have joined the war , This vast group buying entrepreneurial Army , With good hope , trend “ The game of death ”, Because there is often only one winner . Wang Xing is the champion gladiator who is tempered from the competition between blood and fire .

 

Financing by others , Burn money , advertising , Price war , Wang Xing focuses on creating user interfaces that are suitable for Chinese users' preferences , The first automated payment mechanism , Open up the channels of merchants .“ The high wall 、 Wide accumulate grain 、 Slow king ” It's his strategy . In the end, most of the competitors failed , Only meituan is left 、 Public comments and nuomi.com are standing firm . later , Meituan and Dianping , Complete transformation , Become a huge consumer service Kingdom .

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4. The kingdom of data

In the arena , In addition to a keen business sense and a smart mind , Big data is also a very important success factor . delivery 、 Car maintenance 、 Shared bicycle 、 The Internet of Street convenience stores and other industries , So that China has a large number of key resources in the era of artificial intelligence —— data . Rely on hard work on the ground , Our country has far surpassed the United States in this respect , Become the world's largest data producer , It has laid the foundation for the leading position in the era of artificial intelligence . There is a breakthrough technology —— Deep learning , It has greatly promoted the development of artificial intelligence , It is also the first time to apply artificial intelligence to the real world .

 

① Deep learning

In essence , Deep learning is actually a neural network algorithm , Using a lot of data from specific areas , Make the best decision for the desired outcome . The method is to let the system use these input data , Train yourself to recognize the correlation between data and desired results . The core ability of deep learning is to identify rules 、 Get the best solution 、 Make a decision , It can be applied to many daily problems .

 

Doing so requires a lot of relevant data 、 Powerful algorithms 、 Sufficiently detailed areas and clear objectives , You can't succeed without any one . In our country , These factors all have .

 

② The age of inventions and experts → The age of hard work and data

The advent of deep learning , It means that we will change from the age of experts to the age of hard work and data . Only when it is truly applied to production and life , Academic research can become meaningful . Today, , Successful AI algorithms require three things : big data 、 Powerful computing power , And excellent ( But not necessarily top ) Artificial intelligence algorithm engineer . In the age of hard work , Data is the most important . The more sample data the artificial neural network obtains , The more we can correctly recognize the form , Accurately identify things in the real world .

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The age of invention turned to the age of hard work , The age of experts turns to the age of data , These two changes have given China great advantages . China's data advantage is not only reflected in quantity , The quality is guaranteed . Comparison with the United States , Silicon Valley giants collect data from users' online activities , Search engine 、 Upload photos 、 Watch Video 、 Please wait . Chinese companies collect data according to the behavior of users in the real world : When and where to buy what items 、 Dining habits 、 Selection of cosmetics 、 Selection of transportation services, etc . obviously , The user data in China is more accurate .

 

③ The alternative Internet world

since iPhone On 2007 After it came out in , The era of mobile Internet is coming . Unlike the West , A large number of users in China have skipped the era of personal computers , Realized the first network experience with smart phone .2004 year , Alibaba is the first digital payment platform for Chinese users —— Alipay , Later, the product was adapted to smart phones ;2011 year , The world's largest mobile application —— Wechat came out , Overturned the successful on the computer desktop QQ. Alibaba and Tencent, the two largest Internet giants in China , To compete for the market share of mobile payment , Launched a war without gunpowder , WeChat in 2014 On New Year's Eve, an air raid was launched , Weapons are the traditional customs of our country “ Hand out red envelopes ”, The finger of the sword “ Alipay ”.

For the next few years , Alibaba 、 tencent 、 Are you hungry 、 Tiktok 、OfO、 Didi and thousands of start-ups scramble to apply these tools to every payment scenario in China's urban life : Take-out food 、 Electricity bill 、 Net red live 、 Door to door manicure 、 Shared bicycle 、 Train tickets 、 Cinema ticket 、 Traffic tickets, etc . In the government “ Mass Entrepreneurship , Mass innovation ” Encouraged by the policy of , Our country is full of “O2O”(Online To Offline, Online to offline ).

 

People only need a connected smart phone to complete most of their consumption , Life has been greatly facilitated . China's huge data and consumers make the local Internet giants catch up with their American rivals in terms of revenue and market value , Even beat them .

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Two 、 The field of artificial intelligence , Which is better between China and the United States ?

stay 21 In the 21st century, we should build a great country of artificial intelligence , Four conditions are required : A lot of data 、 Persistent Entrepreneurs 、 Excellent AI scientists and favorable policy environment . China and the United States are undoubtedly the two largest artificial intelligence superpowers , The rivalry between them affects the global pattern .

1. The age of hard work and data

Although the United States still leads in the field of top AI scientists , But in this age of artificial intelligence , The advantages of Silicon Valley will no longer exist .

 

The arena of China's Internet start-up companies has selected the most shrewd and powerful entrepreneurs in the world , It has created the richest data ecological environment in the world , Artificial intelligence experts continue to emerge , The artificial intelligence program of the Chinese government is advancing bravely in the new investment boom , Led to entrepreneurship 、 New direction of innovation .

2. Competition among the seven giants of artificial intelligence

Hundreds of companies have invested a lot of resources in AI research , Seven artificial intelligence giants —— Google 、Facebook、 Amazon 、 Microsoft 、 Baidu 、 Alibaba and Tencent stand out . among , There are four in the United States , There are three in China . At present, China is in the era of hard work , Take the lead . But if someone really invented the next technology as great as deep learning , And in a closed enterprise environment , The situation is very difficult to say . Google in the United States is the most likely candidate .

at present , Google has taken the lead in robotics ( Such as AlphaGo) And driverless areas have achieved some success . Burning money crazily has attracted most of the world's smartest AI practitioners for Google , The top 100 Of AI researchers and engineers , About half belong to Google .

3. Computer chips

Every generation of computers needs chips . Our government has been working hard to develop high-performance chips for decades , But over the past three decades , Silicon Valley companies in the United States have always maintained a leading position . In the next ten to twenty years , This advantage may be caught up by the Chinese government and venture capital , Because before the massive economic changes brought about by artificial intelligence , The government and enterprises attach great importance to chips . Who will win , Not yet known. .

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4. The dilemma of autonomous driving

The author thinks that , Autonomous vehicle will be much safer than human driving cars in the future , The large-scale implementation of this technology will greatly reduce the casualty rate of traffic accidents , It can also greatly improve the efficiency of transportation and logistics . But this technology may cause some people to lose their jobs or even their lives . This risk has initially shown signs in the United States , For example, the death of Tesla autonomous vehicle . American truck drivers are strongly opposed to the use of autonomous vehicle ,2017 year , The truck drivers' Union successfully lobbied the U.S. Congress to promote the application of automatic driving , Exclude trucks .

And in our country , The government plans autonomous driving areas separately , It can effectively avoid accidents , At the same time, formulate relevant policies based on the cultural values of the country , This is undoubtedly more conducive to the accelerated development of artificial intelligence .

3、 ... and 、 Achieve four waves of artificial intelligence development

1. The first wave : Internet intelligence

Are you addicted to Tiktok short video ? It seems that Taobao and JD know what you want to buy ? If you've ever had a similar experience , Then you are likely to be the beneficiary of Internet AI ( The victim ).

 

The first wave of artificial intelligence rose more than ten years ago , stay 2012 It's been mainstream in the last few years . In general , Internet artificial intelligence uses artificial intelligence algorithm as recommendation engine : These algorithms understand 、 Research 、 Learn from our personal preferences , So as to recommend our specific content .

Driving these AI engines , It's the data they get . At present, the largest database is in the hands of Internet giants . But the data must be labeled , To really help the algorithm . The tag here doesn't need to actively evaluate the content , Or add keywords to the content , It's about connecting data to pending behavior , Such as purchase and non purchase , Click and no click, etc . these “ label ” Are used to train algorithms , Then the algorithm recommends the content and goods to the users , Let's spend more .

 

One side , Artificial intelligence provides us with convenience ; On the other hand , Artificial intelligence can also learn and understand human beings through data . The first wave of artificial intelligence has spawned a number of Internet companies driven by artificial intelligence algorithms , In our country , The bellwether of such companies is today's headlines . Today's headline AI engine searches the Internet for content , Using naturallanguageprocessing and computer vision technology , Digest and sort out a large number of articles and videos from partners and special contributors , Then, according to the user's previous behavior , If you click 、 read 、 Browse 、 Comments, etc , For each user's interest 、 Preferences and habits are highly customized and dynamically pushed . Using artificial intelligence algorithms , Today's headlines have been a great success .

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2. The second wave : Business intelligence

The first wave of artificial intelligence is based on labeling the browsing data of Internet users , Commercial artificial intelligence is to label a large amount of professional data accumulated by traditional companies for decades , For example, the insurance companies identify insurance fraud in the settlement of claims , The bank records the repayment rate when issuing loans , The hospital keeps diagnostic records and patient survival rate . Commercial artificial intelligence mines hidden connections from these databases that humans tend to ignore , Refer to forgotten decisions and outcomes , Training algorithm with labeled data , Finally, it will surpass the most experienced human practitioners .

 

at present , In industries that have direct access to commercial artificial intelligence , Small and micro finance is the most promising one . The artificial intelligence application developed by Zhirong group can use algorithms to assess the risk of loans , And make more accurate judgments than people .

Zhirong group's in-depth learning algorithm does not only look at obvious indicators , For example, how much money is in the user's wechat wallet , It also makes analysis based on data points that are considered insignificant by the general bank loan reviewers , Such as the speed at which the user enters the date of birth 、 How much power is left in the cell phone battery and thousands of other data . These data seem to be very weakly correlated , But once the number is very large , It can greatly increase the accuracy of artificial intelligence loan judgment . This is beyond the reach of human beings .

 

Commercial AI is not only used in money related fields , It can also be used in data-driven public services , For example, in the field of medical diagnosis . It can help first-class doctors find the relevance of disease data , Make a better diagnosis , Serve more patients , Relieve medical pressure . Commercial artificial intelligence can also be used as a court assistant , Use previous case data , Provide the judge with relevant evidence and suggestions on judgment, etc .

3. The third wave : The real world is intelligent

The third wave is to extend artificial intelligence to our living environment , With a large number of sensors and intelligent equipment , Transform our real world into data that can be analyzed and optimized by deep learning algorithms . We will enter a new environment of online and offline integration , The author calls this new environment “ Online and offline integration ”(Online-Merge-Offline), abbreviation OMO.OMO Completely integrate the data world and the real world , Bring the convenience of the online world into the offline world , Bring the content perceived in the offline world to the online world .

future , Perceptual artificial intelligence will bring shopping malls 、 The grocery store 、 City streets and even our homes are transformed into OMO Environmental Science , There will also be some artificial intelligence applications that make users feel really futuristic . The author believes that in the future , When you walk in OMO Driven supermarket , The shopping cart will automatically display the list of foods you often buy for your reference , You can tell it directly what you need , You no longer need a hand cart , It will automatically follow you not far behind .

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OMO In addition to being applied to shopping , It can also drive education , Practice in class 、 Homework and exercises 、 Examination and grading 、 Customized tutoring can be applied in these four scenarios . This will not only reduce the burden on Teachers , Let them have more time to care about other aspects of students ; It can also help students learn , Especially the students with poor grades , Artificial intelligence system can provide detailed classroom information , Parents and students can choose appropriate counseling services based on this information .

 

So here comes the question , How do we strike a balance between personal privacy and public data ? It may depend on the choice of each country . The protection of users' privacy in the United States , from Facebook Of “ Cambridge analysis ” The incident and a series of subsequent hearings can be seen . In our country 2017 Implemented in 《 Network security law of the people's Republic of China 》 in , It also stipulates that illegal collection 、 The behavior of buying and selling user data shall be punished . But on the whole , At present, users in China do not have a strong appeal to the exclusion of collecting personal data in public places , It will have a great starting advantage in the implementation of perceptual artificial intelligence .

4. The fourth wave : Autonomous intelligence

Autonomous artificial intelligence is the epitome of the first three waves of artificial intelligence , It is also the peak , Combine extremely complex data with machine awareness , You will not only understand the world , A machine that can change the world . Autonomous AI devices can completely change the daily lives of most of us , Including shopping malls 、 The restaurant 、 City 、 factory 、 Fire brigade, etc .

 

for example , In terms of drones , Groups of autonomous drones can work together , It takes a few hours to paint the exterior walls of the house . Heat resistant UAVs can also be used to extinguish forest fires , UAVs can also search and rescue after hurricanes and earthquakes , Give food and water to the trapped and so on .

 

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On autopilot , Now there are dozens of companies competing to commercialize this technology , Replace human drivers with autonomous driving . Autonomous vehicle must be trained with millions or even billions of kilometers of driving data , Make them learn to recognize objects 、 Predict the movements of vehicles and pedestrians . There are two leaders —— Google and Tesla .

 

Google is the first company to develop autonomous driving technology , Strive to create a perfect product , After the safety of automatic driving greatly exceeds that of human driving , And then directly jump into the full autonomy of artificial intelligence . And Elon · Tesla of musk adopts a gradual model , After the development of some functions , It will be applied to our own cars immediately . Of course, there are great risks .

 

China also has its own Tesla Model , But unlike the United States , The key to China's progressive application model is to build new infrastructure to accommodate autonomous vehicle . Our country is adjusting the existing road , Change the shape of the truck , Even build new cities that can accommodate autonomous vehicle . The positive action of the government has turned the application into the coevolution of cities and artificial intelligence .

 

As for who can take the lead in the four waves of artificial intelligence between China and the United States , The author gives his opinion , He believes that the two countries are basically equal , The following figure is the prediction chart given by the author .

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in 、 Strength evaluation and future of the United States and China in the four waves of artificial intelligence 5 The trend of development in

Four 、 The real AI crisis

It is predicted that , The field of artificial intelligence will usher in “ singularity ”—— There is a machine whose ability to understand and manipulate the world dwarfs human beings , The intelligence gap between humans and them is almost the same as that between insects and humans . This bold prediction divides the intellectual world into two camps —— Utopians and dystopians .

 

Utopians regard the beginning and singularity of strong artificial intelligence as the frontier of human prosperity , Think this is an opportunity for human beings to further broaden their knowledge and eternal life . The dystopian Hawking once said that , Artificial intelligence may destroy human beings . Elon · Musk calls super intelligence “ The greatest risk facing human civilization ”, He compared the creation of super intelligence to “ Summon Demon ”.

 

The author thinks that the universal super intelligence can not be realized under the current technology . But the previous industrial revolutions did have some GPTs(General Purpose Technologies, General technology ), Including steam engine and electrification , And information and communication technology . The author believes that artificial intelligence will soon become the next GPT, It has had a disruptive impact on the industry in the past .

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1. unemployment

① catalyst

Economists predict 2030 year , Artificial intelligence will bring... To the global economy 15.7 Trillions of dollars in wealth . A lot of benefits come from automation replacing a lot of manual work . When man competes with a machine whose computing power exceeds that of the human brain , Undergraduate and even highly specialized graduate degrees are no longer the guarantee of work .

 

Compared with the period of the industrial revolution , The economic transformation driven by artificial intelligence will happen faster , This is mainly due to the role of three catalysts .

 

A. Easy replication of artificial intelligence algorithm

Many AI products are just digital algorithms , It can be copied all over the world 、 Zero cost applications , The update and improvement after application are almost cost-free .

 

B. Venture capital industry (VC) The birth of

VC It refers to early investment in high-risk and high potential companies , In the next ten years ,VC It will promote the rapid application of artificial intelligence and business model iteration , Explore everything this technology can do .

 

C. The influence of our country

In the age of industrialization and electrification , China lags far behind the western countries . But in the age of the Internet , Over the past five years , China has caught up with the development of Internet technology , It can export talents to the world , This trend has greatly accelerated the innovation speed of mobile Internet . In artificial intelligence , China's progress has enabled nearly one fifth of the world's population to contribute to the promotion and application of artificial intelligence .

 

② Employment risk assessment chart

About artificial intelligence , What ordinary people care about most is what jobs will be replaced , Which jobs are safe . The author distinguishes between mental work and physical work , Two employment risk assessment charts are listed , Readers can judge their own industry according to the chart .

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Employment risk assessment chart : physical labor

For manual labor ,X To the left of the axis is “ Low skill 、 structured ”, On the right is “ High skill 、 Unstructured ”.Y Below the shaft is “ Weak social contact ”, Above is “ Strong social ”.

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Employment risk assessment chart : mental labour

Of mental work Y Shaft is the same as manual labor ( Weak social to strong social ), but X The axis is different : On the left is “ Optimized ”, The right side is “ Creative or decision-making ”. If the focus of mental work is to maximize the quantifiable variables in the data ( For example, set the optimal insurance premium rate or maximize the tax rebate ), It is classified as “ Optimized ” The professional .

 

These axes divide the two graphs into four quadrants : The third quadrant is “ Danger zone ”, The first quadrant is “ Safety zone ”, The second quadrant is “ Binding zone ”, The fourth quadrant is “ Slow change zone ”.

 

The work content mainly falls into “ Danger zone ” The job of ( Such as truck drivers ) There is a high risk of being replaced in the next few years .“ Safety zone ” The job of ( Like a psychotherapist 、 Physiotherapists, etc ), It is unlikely to be automated in the foreseeable future .“ Binding zone ” and “ Slow change zone ” The boundaries of quadrants are not very clear : Although it will not be completely replaced at present , But the reorganization of work tasks or the steady progress of Technology , It may lead to widespread layoffs for these jobs .

 

In the upper left corner “ Binding zone ” in , Most of the computational and physical tasks can already be done by machines , But the key part of social interaction makes them difficult to fully automate . therefore , The most likely result is that the optimization work behind the scenes is done by the machine , But human employees are still needed to do the social interface of customers , Humans and machines form a symbiotic relationship . Such work may include waiters 、 Financial advisors and even general practitioners . The rate and proportion of the disappearance of these jobs depend on the flexibility of the company to transform the work content of its employees , And how open customers are to interacting with computers .

 

Fall in the “ Slow change zone ” The job of ( Such as a plumber 、 Construction worker 、 Art designers, etc ) Not dependent on human social skills , And rely on flexible and ingenious handiwork 、 The ability to be creative or adaptable to unstructured environments . These are still the weak points of artificial intelligence . Due to the continuous development of technology, these weaknesses will be gradually improved in the next few years , therefore The rate at which work disappears in this quadrant , Much depends on the actual expansion of AI capabilities .

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③ Two types of unemployment :“ One on one replace ” and “ To remove completely ”

One on one replace :

Many AI companies are trying to develop a single AI driven product that can replace a certain class of workers , Such as robots that can complete warehouse handling . If successful , These companies will sell their AI products to customers , And the customer may dismiss the replaced surplus labor . These belong to “ One on one replace ” The type of work .

 

To remove completely :

There is another kind of company , They want to fundamentally restructure the entire industry . These companies pursue new ways to meet the basic needs of the entire industry . Such as Zhirong group 、 AI driven lending companies 、F5 Future stores, etc . These companies do not employ human employees , And provide high-quality and low-cost services , They can put pressure on competitors who hire human workers , There will be fewer and fewer human workers .

 

The author predicts that this radical subversion will affect the United States 10% Jobs , The most impacted type of work is marketing 、 Customer service , And industries that involve a lot of routine optimization work , Like fast food 、 Financial securities and even radiology .

 

Bain consulting is in 2018 year 2 The research results released in May said that , To 2030 year , Employers' demand for employees will decrease 20%~30%. Bain said , Indeed, some unemployed people will enter new jobs , For example, robot maintenance personnel , But this kind of reemployment has no substantial impact on the large-scale and rising unemployment rate . If the salary reduction factor is taken into account , So close 80% Of American workers will be affected . This will be a new normal : Intelligent machines are fully employed , There are many obstacles to human employment .

2. Inequality caused by artificial intelligence

AI focuses on specific skills , There will be a polarized job market , Squeeze out the middle class . We have seen the trend of monopoly in the Internet world , In just a few years , Many core network functions have been monopolized . Whether in China or the United States , A few Internet giants have mastered most of the Internet . Artificial intelligence will bring the same monopoly trend to industries outside the Internet , And gradually erode the market competition mechanism .

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The surviving jobs were divided into two groups : A batch of top income , Such as CEO、 Investors, etc ; A group of people with average income , Like a masseuse 、 Family caregivers, etc . But the seriousness of the problem is , Many of the occupations that form the cornerstone of the middle class will be emptied , Create a greater gap between the rich and the poor . Like a truck driver 、 Accountants 、 Office manager, etc .

 

Artificial intelligence may also breed 21 The class system of the th century : The AI elite and “ No class ”. The useless class refers to the historian Yuval · Noah · Herali said that people who can never create enough economic value to support themselves .

 

The author is worried about , Using artificial intelligence to gain huge benefits will create significant inequality , At the same time, it also leads to social instability . A large number of young people used to be the greatest advantage of developing countries , But in the future of the great leap forward development of artificial intelligence , But it will become a drag and potential destabilizing factor .

 

And between countries , The distribution of wealth is even more uneven . Countries with weak artificial intelligence , You will find that your economic development has no chance to further , Can only become a vassal of the artificial intelligence superpower .

3. Personal crisis

For centuries since the industrial revolution , Work is more than a means of making a living , It is also a source of self recognition and life meaning . Work enriches our life , It gives people a sense of regularity , Let us connect with others . Cut off these connections , Or force people to take jobs that are lower than their social status in the past , It is not just income that is affected , It will also directly hurt our sense of identity and value .

 

2014 Year of 《 The New York times 》 Interviewed frank, a laid-off electrician · Walsh , He described the psychological effects of unemployment :“ I lost my sense of value , Do you know what I mean? ? I was asked before :‘ what do you do for a living? ?’ I will answer. :‘ I'm an electrician .’ But now I can't answer . I am no longer an electrician .”

 

The unemployment caused by artificial intelligence , The psychological trauma is very big . People may be permanently shut out of the economic system , The resulting overwhelming sense of powerlessness , It makes people feel that their existence is meaningless . This has forced us to rethink our work 、 The relationship between value and human meaning .

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5、 ... and 、 The blueprint of man-machine coexistence

As mentioned in the previous chapters , The future will be a long time , Artificial intelligence will lead to a rise in unemployment , The gap between the rich and the poor has widened . The author thinks that , To meet these challenges , You can't just react passively , We must take the initiative to make use of the material wealth created by artificial intelligence , Restructuring the economic system , Rewrite the social contract . At the same time, it preaches human nature , Rebuild the economic incentive mechanism , Encourage behaviors that benefit the society ; Promote all-round economic and social transformation .

1.3R: Retraining 、 Minus time 、 Redistribution

Silicon Valley aims at the unemployment problem caused by artificial intelligence , Propose three types of solutions : Retraining of the employed (retraining workers)、 Reduce working hours (reducing work hours) Or redistribute income (redistributing income).

 

① Retraining of the employed

The program that advocates workers' retraining believes that there are two trends that are crucial to employment in the era of artificial intelligence : Online education and lifelong learning . Unemployed people receive training and guidance through free or paid online education platforms , To find a new job ; And can constantly update skills , Become “ Lifelong learner ”.

 

But the author thinks , If we consider the depth and breadth of the impact of artificial intelligence on employment , This method is far from solving the problem of mass unemployment . Because the development of artificial intelligence is very rapid , Employees have to change careers every few years .

② Reduce working hours 、 Worksharing

Take Google founder Larry · A group led by page , It is proposed to reduce working hours , Many people “ Share ” A plan for the same job . This scheme can effectively reduce the number of unemployed people , Several states in the United States have implemented this program , The government made some compensation for the lost wages of these people .

 

But in the face of the continuous impact of artificial intelligence on jobs , This plan may lose momentum . Because the net income of the employed has decreased , The government's affordable support is also limited .

 

③ Redistribution : The basic income of the whole people and the minimum guaranteed income

Basic income of the whole people (Universal Basic Income,UBI) It is the most popular redistribution scheme nowadays , The core idea is very simple —— Every citizen receives a regular income grant from the government , Without any additional conditions .

 

Another redistribution scheme is called minimum guaranteed income (Guaranteed Minimum Income,GMI), That is, to provide subsidies only to the poor , And establish “ Minimum income ” Threshold : Ensure that the income of employees will not be lower than this line , Similar to our “ Minimum security ” policy .

 

The source of funding for the redistribution programme , Most of it is about the age of artificial intelligence “ Winner ” A huge amount of taxes , Such as traditional companies that make profits from artificial intelligence . But this scheme is also controversial . Some people think that the subsidy should not be too much , In this way, the employees will not lose the motivation to find jobs . Others believe that the subsidy should cover the loss of income caused by unemployment . Look at it this way ,UBI May become a step towards “ Leisure society ” The key step , People are completely free from the need for work , You are free to pursue your dreams .

 

But the author thinks ,UBI No doubt it's like painkillers . First , Single UBI Policy is to get something for nothing , This kind of scheme may cause the subsidized people to do nothing , Addicted to games 、 Tobacco, alcohol and even drugs . secondly , Even if a person is very motivated , But if the government doesn't come up with feasible solutions for employment and training , Even if you can find a job by yourself , It is also likely to be soon replaced by artificial intelligence . We must find ways to take advantage of artificial intelligence , At the same time, we pay more attention to the essential difference between us and machines , That is the power of love .

 

AI· future

This insight occurred during the author's fight against cancer . He recalled , I used to work like a machine . Cancer is like a flash of lightning , It broke his body , It also makes him understand that the fundamental difference between himself and the machine is “ Can you love ”.

Fortunately, , The author recovered after treatment . He began to cherish his time with his relatives , Reexamine man and machine 、 The relationship between human mind and artificial thinking . The author came to realize , The medicine that cured him consists of two parts : Technology and emotion . These two points will become the pillars of artificial intelligence in the future .

2. Man and machine coexist : Optimization and human relations

Jobs created by the free market , Many are collaborative mechanisms that combine human and machine capabilities : Artificial intelligence is responsible for routine 、 Repetitive optimization tasks , Humans are responsible for jobs that require creative and strategic thinking and for dealing with interpersonal relationships . This requires readjustment of many posts , It will also create new jobs , Let human beings and machines work together to provide efficient and humanized high-quality services .

 

①STEM education

In the employment risk assessment chart , This man-machine cooperation mechanism can be used in the upper left corner in the future “ Binding zone ” The group that provides the most employment opportunities —— Artificial intelligence makes analytical thinking , Humans use warmth and love to convey the analysis made by machines . More Than This ,“ Safety zone ” and “ Slow change zone ” There will be a similar change trend in my work . therefore , The author thinks that , We should develop STEM education ——STEM Is science (Science)、 technology (Technology)、 The engineer (Engineering)、 mathematics (Mathematics) Four disciplines , Emphasize the cultivation of creativity and thinking in education , This is similar to the caring work to be analyzed below , Together, they constitute the two key points of future education .

 

② Caring nurse

Take the profession of doctors for example , The author firmly believes that artificial intelligence algorithms are in the diagnosis of diseases 、 Making treatment plans and other aspects must surpass human doctors . Traditional doctors may evolve into a new profession , The author calls it “ Caring nurse ”. This kind of medical expert gathers nurses 、 Medical artists 、 Social workers , Even the skills of a psychologist .“ Caring nurse ” Two types of training are required : First, understand and operate the diagnostic tools ; Second, communicate with patients 、 Provide comfort when the patient suffers physical or psychological trauma 、 Provide emotional support to patients throughout the treatment process .“ Caring nurse ” Encouraging and successful treatment cases can be shared with patients , Instead of simply telling the patient the cold diagnosis .

AI· future

Other similar areas include education 、 law 、 Event planning and high-end retail industry . For professionals , With the gradual popularization of artificial intelligence , We must learn to use artificial intelligence tools as soon as possible .

 

③ Shared economic

The trend of sharing economy led by the Internet will greatly alleviate unemployment , And redefine the work of the artificial intelligence era . Many goods and services can be digitized and continuously optimized through algorithms , But the fragmentation in the sharing economy 、 Personalized work is still something that only humans can do . Like didi and Uber Waiting for online car Hailing companies has greatly improved efficiency and attracted more people to join , It also increases the demand of users and the actual salary of service personnel .

 

④ New service work

In addition to the established role of the sharing economy , There will also be new service jobs that we can't imagine today . For example, people may hire “ Season changing division ”, Help you tidy up your wardrobe every season , And let the wardrobe send out the fragrance of flowers in the season . Artificial intelligence liberates our time at the same time , Creative businesses and ordinary people can take advantage of these platforms , Create new forms of work .

 

But the author still expresses his concern , If only free market operation , Can not completely reverse the large-scale unemployment and the widening gap between the rich and the poor . We cannot rely solely on the man-machine cooperation mechanism of the private enterprise market , We must also invest and policy through the influence of the service industry , Promote the transformation of broader cultural values , Inject new vitality into these industries .

3. Influence investment

As a venture capitalist , The author thinks that there is a new form of “ Influence investment ” In dealing with the social impact of the artificial intelligence era , Can play an important role .

 

He hopes that such a venture capital ecosystem will emerge in the future : Will create “ Human service ” The post itself is regarded as a good career , At the same time, it also invests in related industries , Introduce funds into a country that can absorb a large number of labor 、 People oriented service items , Such as postpartum nursing and lactation consultant 、 Youth sports coach 、 Oral history collector 、 National Park guides or old people chatting with them .

 

Create such an ecosystem , Need to change the mindset of the venture capitalists involved . The author hopes that traditional venture capitalists can be replaced by older ones 、 VC executives who want to change the world lead , Drive the young 、 Hope to do something “ charitable ” or “ public welfare ” Young venture capitalists working together . If enterprises from all walks of life can participate , Take the initiative to take social responsibility , The author believes that we can weave a new employment “ Safety net ”, Build a caring and humane society .

AI· future

4.“ Social contribution allowance ”: Nursing 、 Service and training

For those who devote their time and energy to charity 、 People who make society more human and creative ,( There are three categories of activities : Nursing work 、 Community service and training ), The government can pay them a good salary , This subsidy will be the backbone of the new social contract .

 

say concretely , For full-time and part-time workers in the above three types of jobs , Different salaries should be given . Nursing work includes one-on-one education for children 、 Accompany the elderly 、 Help a sick friend or family member , Or help other spirits 、 People with physical defects improve their quality of life . Service work includes most of the work of non-profit organizations , And what volunteers do , Such as environmental management 、 Host after class activities 、 Be a park guide 、 Collect the oral history of the elders in each community . In terms of training , Vocational education in the era of artificial intelligence includes professional skills training , It also includes courses that turn hobbies into careers .

 

The author especially emphasizes that , It is required to receive “ Social contribution allowance ” Of people do these jobs , It's not about forcing them to control their daily activities , We should protect human diversity .

 

The implementation of such a policy requires a large amount of fiscal revenue , The author suggests a gradual approach : Do not directly and comprehensively implement the above “ Social contribution allowance ” programme , Try to reduce the impact of job loss on the society first , And then gradually write a new social contract .

AI· future Conclusion

Now is the future , We need to understand artificial intelligence , Make good use of artificial intelligence , Be prepared for the challenges of AI . Although AI can lead to unemployment , But it also makes us understand , Repetitive work is not the meaning of life .

Machines have no emotions , The ability to love and be loved constitutes the meaning of our lives .

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