Population innovation , Explore the relationship between population, innovation and economy , An analysis of the advantages of population creation in various countries 、 Inferiority 、 Policy opportunities and pitfalls , Focus on the solution to China's future population aging problem . Jack Ma, chairman of Alibaba, strongly recommended ！
List of articles
- 1 The value of population innovation
- 2 Population innovation reading harvest
- 3 Population innovation
- 4 Introduction to the author of population innovation
- 5 Interpretation of the essence of population innovation
- 6 Population innovation
- 7 junction language
The value of population innovation
Ma Yun's Preface , Stanford University economics professors jointly recommend . One being “ delay ” A demographer in business , A book on the relationship between population and innovation ability , And analyze how it affects the economic development of the rigorous academic works ！ Let liangjianzhang, the founder of ctrip.com, tell you , The relationship between population and national innovation .
Population innovation reading harvest
Understand the relationship between population and national innovation .
Insight into the advantages and challenges of China's innovation .
Learn how future population policies will affect innovation .
- Today's economic competition is already a battle for talents , Instead of fighting over resources .
Human knowledge is like a giant , It's getting bigger and bigger , It makes it more difficult for the latecomers to stand on the shoulders of giants .
Throughout history , The impact of population on innovation is always at work .
Introduction to the author of population innovation
Founder and chairman of the board of directors of Ctrip , Professor of economics, Guanghua School of management, Peking University , Doctor of economics, Stanford University .
Master of systems engineering, shanghaijiaotonguniversity 、 Johns · Doctor of Biostatistics, Hopkins University , Former lecturer of management science department of University of science and technology of China 、 Assistant Professor, Department of Biostatistics, Harvard University 、 New York Millennium hedge fund strategist . He is now a partner and managing director of a financial company in Beijing 、 Caixin. Com columnist on population issues 、 Specially invited researcher of the society of Humanities and economics .
Interpretation of the essence of population innovation
The following is 《 Population innovation 》 An interpretation of the essence of a Book , For the majority of book friends to learn reference , Welcome to share , It cannot be used for commercial purposes without permission .
One 、 Our misconceptions about population
Two 、 Economic development depends on people
3、 ... and 、 innovation , innovation , Or innovation? ！
Four 、 The current situation of world population and innovation
Our misconceptions about population
1. Low fertility has become a difficult problem in many countries
About 200 years ago , Thomas, a British economist · Malthus published an article on population and economics . He thinks that , The increase of productivity will inevitably lead to the exponential growth of population , Because when people have more income , There will be more children . And these frenzied population growth will consume social productivity , Lead to famine 、 War and other disasters .
So what is the real world population situation ？ Let's have a look .
In agricultural society , The population of all countries shows a low growth rate 、 The characteristics of high mortality and high birth rate . Because it is limited by the level of productivity , Parents need to have as many offspring as possible , To ensure that at least one child can live to adulthood . And recently after the industrial revolution and the technological revolution 200 In the middle of the year , The growth scale of the world economy is astonishing . The world's per capita income has increased from a few hundred dollars to several thousand dollars . With the increase of wealth , People have more resources and means to reduce infant mortality , Improve the health of offspring , People live longer , So the population is growing rapidly .
But in the post industrial era , Contrary to Malthus' prediction , As people get richer , Instead, parents are becoming more and more reluctant to have children . The phenomenon of population explosion disappeared , Almost all countries have experienced a sharp decline in fertility in the course of continuous prosperity and development .
near 50 Over the years , The size of the family has drastically decreased , The fertility rate continues to decline , The world's average comprehensive fertility rate has gone from 50 s 4.9 Down to 21 At the beginning of the century 10 Year of 2.5 about . With the development of industrialization and urbanization , More and more countries are experiencing low fertility and this fertility rate will decline further . Ultra low fertility , It has become a very worrying social problem in many countries .
What is the reason behind the ultra-low fertility rate ？ The author sums up for us in the book .
① Education is receiving more and more attention . Especially in East Asian countries , People's desire to cultivate highly educated offspring , It will not only increase the expenditure on Education , Parents' efforts will also increase . This concept of quality rather than quantity , It is bound to lead to a reduction in fertility .
② As the economy turns more towards service-oriented and innovation driven , Women's education level and labor force participation rate are rising steadily . Women spend more time on career development , Changed the traditional “ Male Lord outside female Lord inside ” Pattern , The time and energy that a family can spend on educating its children are reduced as a whole .
③ Under the agricultural - based economic system , Providing for the aged is one of the main reasons for people to breed offspring . Nowadays, more and more old people can live on their own savings and public pensions , The cost of raising children is too high , But it doesn't help to support their parents , This is... From a financial point of view “ Lose money ” Of .
④ Modern cities provide people with many ways of entertainment and leisure , The time that people could have spent raising children was “ preemption ” A lot of . Therefore, young people in cities are constantly delaying their marriage , Late marriage has become a trend . Some people prefer to live a single life , No children . meanwhile , Divorce rates are also rising in high-income countries, especially in large cities , This will also lead to a decline in fertility .
A serious problem with low fertility is the aging of the population . Due to low fertility and high life expectancy , The world population is becoming more and more “ The old ”.2015 year , The elderly population （ Greater than 60 year ） Of the world's population 8.5%, Expect to 2030 reach 12%, To 2050 In more than 15%, And it will continue to grow . At that time , Japan and South Korea will become the oldest countries in the world , The average national age is 53 year ; In some European countries with ultra-low fertility , Germany 、 The average age of the citizens of countries such as Italy and Spain will exceed 50 year , Than 2010 Years increased 7~10 year ; The average age of Chinese nationals will reach 46 year , Older than the current average age 9 year .
Aging not only aggravates the working age population “ Old age dependency ratio ”（ How many old people should be borne by every 100 people of working age ）, It will also have a serious impact on the country's economic development , This point will be elaborated in the following chapters .
2. Population 、 resources 、 Environmental Science
1972 year , The club of Rome, a faithful of Malthus, published a report entitled 《 The limits of growth 》 This prediction is made in the report of ： In the decades that followed , The population explosion will lead to the depletion of energy and resources . There are still many people worried about , With economic development and population growth , Natural resources will become increasingly scarce , So the price will be more and more expensive .
These ideas are wrong . Although in the past 200 years , Human productivity and population have increased , However, due to the development of alternative resources and energy , Natural resources have not been exhausted . In theory , There are few restrictions on the development of alternative energy sources . All the energy on earth eventually comes from the sun , An hour of sunlight shining on the earth , Enough to provide one year's electricity consumption in the world today . The reason why we still use a lot of fossil fuels is , Fossil fuels are still relatively cheap . Recently, shale gas technology has further reduced the cost of fossil energy , With abundant shale gas reserves, the United States is expected to become a net resource exporter in the near future . China is also rich in shale gas resources , Once the price of oil rises , Can be used to support Chinese consumption .
The truth is , If the price can reflect the supply and demand of a specific resource , The depletion of any kind of resources will not be a big problem , Because as prices rise , Other alternative resources will be put into use . There was a time , The oil price in the United States is more than a barrel 100 dollar , But a few years later , Due to the vigorous development of solar energy and electric vehicle industry , The price of oil has fallen back to about a barrel today 50 dollar . stay 21 In the early years of the th century , The rapid growth of China's economy has driven demand , The price of oil soared . But then 2015 year , High oil prices are driving solar energy 、 Development of clean energy technologies such as wind energy and shale gas , The oil price is gradually coming down . So usually , It will take years for the world to adapt to alternative resources , The energy crisis is temporary rather than permanent .
today , In the world economy, there are only 5% The share is related to natural resources . For humans , What is scarce is not energy , It's your own creativity . In the future 100 Within a year , It is very possible for human beings to explore and use energy on other planets .
Food is the staff of life . The question of energy is over , Let's talk about the food and water resources that many people are concerned about . Again , Although the world population and food consumption have been rising steadily , However, the world food prices have remained stable and declined .20 century 80 There are two things of great significance to world food production in the s , First, the Green Revolution spread to India , Turn it from a food importer to a food exporter , Although India's population grew very rapidly during this period ; Second, China's agricultural technology has also been greatly improved , Especially after the implementation of the rural household contract responsibility system .
in fact , The progress of agricultural technology has led to an increase in grain production in all countries . China's contribution to agricultural technological progress cannot be underestimated , We use the world 7% Of the arable land has fed nearly all over the world 20% Population . The Earth actually has enough land to feed the world's population . China will import more grain in the future , It's not because we can't produce , But because food is cheaper in other countries .
In terms of demand , As world population growth slows , The growth rate of food consumption will obviously slow down , Prices will remain stable for the foreseeable future . The proportion of agriculture in the world economy will continue to decrease , And with the improvement of production efficiency , In the future, food will become abundant and cheap .
As for water resources , Because it is renewable , The total amount of water resources contained in the earth is fixed . Although the distribution of freshwater resources is uneven , But it's not a matter of resources , It's production 、 The economic problems of distribution and resource protection . for example , Developed countries use agricultural water more efficiently than developing countries , The reason is that developed countries have invested heavily in water saving technologies and measures . Israel is one of the countries with the lowest per capita water resources in the world , As the drip irrigation system was first adopted , It uses less water than traditional irrigation 50%. Besides , Seawater desalination technology has also developed to a high degree in Israel , They use desalination technology to produce a large amount of fresh water , And the cost is lower than per cubic meter 1 dollar .
Finally, let's talk about the environment . Smog has occurred frequently in the past few years . What is haze ？ It is actually a phenomenon caused by the accumulation of a large number of suspended particles in the air under specific meteorological conditions . It is commonly believed , Suspended particulate matter mainly comes from vehicle emissions 、 coal 、 Industrial pollution and construction dust , And these are the products of human activities . Without a high degree of industrialization and a huge population , There will be no serious haze . So some people think , Only by controlling the population can the environment be protected .
Actually , Population is only a minor factor in environmental pollution . The impact of technology and lifestyle choices on the environment , Much larger than the size of the population itself . such as , Compared with public transport and clean energy vehicles , Cars that use non clean energy consume more resources than 20~30 times . In the history of , Through investment and use of clean technology, mankind has successfully solved environmental problems . London, for example, was once called “ Fog city ”, It happened in 1952 The fog that lasted for several days in caused many deaths . Then the British government made up its mind , A series of measures have been taken to solve the pollution problem . today , Although London has a much larger population than at that time , But its air quality in the world 143 Among the big cities 38 name （ World health organization ,2011）.
1980~2012 year , China's energy consumption has increased 400%, But China's population growth is about 10%. In the coming decades , China's population will stabilize , Whether it can solve China's environmental problems , It depends almost entirely on the speed of adoption of clean technologies .
Let's look at the problem of population congestion . In recent years , In densely populated countries , Major cities have become overcrowded . So people think that the urban population density is closely related to the national population density . But according to our statistics , A country with a very low population density like Argentina , Its 4000 Of the ten thousand inhabitants 1/3 Both live in Buenos Aires , The population density of this city is higher than that of Beijing .
Then the urban population density and per capita GDP What does it matter ？ According to our survey , There is a negative correlation between urban population density and per capita income . When a country becomes richer , Its cities will be more scattered , Population density will also decrease . Because as wealth increases , Cities have the ability to invest in building better roads and public transport , Residents can commute longer distances to work . The urban population density of Los Angeles is not high , Because it has a very large highway system . Tokyo has 3700 Thousands of residents , But it has the largest public transport system in the world （ exceed 3000 Kilometers of subways and trains ）. Poor cities do not have a strong public transport system or road network , Residents have to live close to the city center , That's why the city is densely populated , It's crowded .
In our country , The population of both Beijing and Shanghai has exceeded 2300 ten thousand , And continues to grow , Are there too many people in these megacities ？ For example, people who have lived or traveled in Beijing , Will feel speechless about the pollution and congestion in this city . But the author thinks , The current population of Beijing is far from reaching the optimal population size , Reasonable urban planning can solve the problem of pollution 、 Congestion, etc “ city disease ” Of . We mentioned Los Angeles earlier 、 Public transport planning in Tokyo and other cities , As a rich city , Beijing has the financial resources to keep up .
People are attracted by big cities , Because there are more job opportunities and better public services , Therefore, urbanization is of great benefit to promoting social equity , This is irreversible . According to the author's estimation , Optimal population size in Shanghai and Beijing , About... Can be reached 4000 ten thousand ~5000 ten thousand people . A big city like Shanghai , We can learn from the way Tokyo connects satellite cities with high-speed railways . For example, Yokohama is a satellite city , From downtown Tokyo 28 km , Take the high-speed train to get there 20 minute . In addition, the zoning planning of industrial and residential areas （ The author thinks that it is unnecessary to separate the commercial district from the residential district ）, metro 、 high-speed rail 、 A combination of shared vehicles , All these will solve the traffic problems in megacities .
3. It is imperative to encourage procreation
In order to cope with the problem of low fertility , Countries all over the world have begun to take active measures , Encourage people to have children , Here are a few examples .
In Europe, , Most countries have adopted generous policies to encourage fertility . In the UK , Most families with their first child receive a weekly allowance 20.5 Pound subsidy , Every additional child , Add... Every week 13.5 pound , Until I was twenty . And for low-income families , The first child is given weekly 122.5 pound . Low income families with more than two children , You can get... Every week 210 Pound subsidy . And Germany 、 The French 、 Russia and other countries have adopted direct cash subsidies to encourage childbirth .
Let's look at Asia . For every new born child , The Japanese government will give a one-time bonus of onemillion yen .2013 year , The Japanese government has increased the budget for encouraging childbirth from 94 Billion yen to 140 Billion yen . Besides , South Korea 、 Singapore 、 Taiwan, China, China and other regions facing the problem of low fertility , Both began to raise their budgets to encourage childbirth , But it is still at a low level compared with European countries .
At present, for most countries , How to raise the fertility rate is a common problem .2000 The fertility rate in China was about 1.6,2015 As low as 1.3 following , It has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world . In later chapters , The author will discuss the development trend of China's population in the future and its great impact on the world .
What should be included in the policy of encouraging procreation , The book gives a summary ：
① financial support . Many developed countries with low fertility pay child support to families , Occupy GDP Of 1%~5% Unequal . There is a positive correlation ： Higher subsidies will lead to higher fertility levels .
② Day care and educational support . France is famous for its outstanding government support for preschool children , The government not only provides kindergarten services to every child free of charge ,2.5 Months to 3 Children at the age of , Can be hosted in government provided day care centers , The public service is also free . At present, other countries are also learning from the day care policies of European countries . In China, , In particular, private kindergartens and day care centers in large cities are more expensive , The government's services are in short supply . Primary and secondary schools cannot meet the needs of urban population growth , Various problems have also aggravated the low fertility rate in big cities .
③ Maternity benefits are granted . Generally speaking, pregnancy benefits in Europe are very generous , Paid maternity leave in the UK is 39 Zhou , Enjoy the salary 90%; In Germany, , The length of maternity leave with full pay is 140 God , The employer must then provide 40% The salary of , Until the child is one and a half years old , And the employer cannot dismiss the mother during this period .
In addition to providing benefits , Many countries are trying to build a culture that encourages procreation . For example, the French government will award gold medals to mothers who have more than eight children . Besides , Illegitimate childbirth is quite common in Europe , Illegitimate children can enjoy the same subsidies as legitimate children , This makes it easier for single women to raise children , This has increased the fertility rate to some extent . Low marriage rate is the main reason for low fertility in Asian countries and regions , Because birth out of wedlock is discriminated against in the culture of these countries .
Economic development depends on people
1. The impact of aging on different industries
As we mentioned earlier, a big problem brought about by the low fertility rate is the aging of the population . Aging will hinder a country's innovation vitality , But the impact on different industries is different , Let's see in detail ：
Entertainment tourism . Entertainment and tourism involve the spiritual needs of human beings . As people get richer , After the material consumption such as food, clothing, housing and transportation tends to be saturated , More and more time will be spent on entertainment consumption and tourism activities . The elderly have free time to engage in these activities . So even if the population has aged , The prospect of tourism and entertainment industry is worth being optimistic .
Health industry . Older people live longer , It will also cost more money to prolong life , Therefore, the health care industry will rise with the aging of the population . Advances in genetic technology , It also makes health care one of the most dynamic and innovative industries .
The financial sector . The essence of the financial industry is the cross time transaction of labor output . Children grow up on the wealth of their parents and society , Adult repayment in the form of tax . The government collects taxes from the employed , Provide living and medical security for the elderly . If the population continues to age , The government will have to reduce pension benefits to counter the growing pressure on pension spending . therefore , More and more people will rely on savings or investment for retirement , This will lead to a more prosperous financial industry in an aging society .
The real estate industry . Although people of all ages have housing needs , But people usually do 30~45 Buy a house at the age of （ The need to get married and have children ）,45 After the age of （ Children grow up and leave their parents ）, Demand for housing will shrink . China's big cities have more opportunities for innovation and entrepreneurship , Housing demand will remain strong , However, the age structure changes due to the low fertility rate , This demand will be in 2025 Peaked in , Then it stagnated .
Energy and commodities . The peak demand for steel and iron ore in China has passed , The global demand for energy and commodities will be 2040~2070 Peaked in . Since then, with the population growth, it has entered the stage of stagnation and aging , Commodity prices will also fall as demand falls . A country's wealth and competitiveness will increasingly depend on innovation .
2. A few questions about population and economy
What is the relationship between low fertility and old-age care ？ After the low fertility rate brings about the problem of population aging , Government pension expenditure will increase , The government will basically choose the following measures to deal with ： Raise taxes ; Reduce benefits for the elderly ; Extend the retirement age . All these will reduce a country's economic vitality and innovation ability to a certain extent . In the following chapters , I will elaborate on the reasons .
Can low fertility reduce unemployment ？ Although more people entering the labor market will increase the labor supply , But it also creates more demand , Stimulate more employment opportunities . In particular, an economy is open to international trade , And has a flexible market , More people will not lead to higher unemployment . contrary , Many countries with low fertility have high unemployment （ Spain 、 Russia, etc ）, This is due to the rigid labor market and unreasonable wage structure , It has nothing to do with overpopulation .
innovation , innovation , Or innovation? ！
1. The innovation ability widens the gap between countries
Most economists today believe that , Malthusian theory of population and economics , Only applicable to those in the world who are still in “ Pre industrial economic stage ” The poorest countries in the world . World population development has entered a new era ： Most high - and middle-income countries have stable or even declining populations , Only low-income countries have high population growth rates . therefore , We need a new economic demography model .
Twenty years ago , Paul, American economist · Romer put forward a model about innovation and economic growth ： under certain conditions , A larger group , It can enable more people to engage in research and innovation , So as to drive faster technological progress and higher labor productivity . There are several assumptions in this model , One of them is the free market economy , Ensure that knowledge and goods can be traded . Another assumption is to strengthen the awareness of property rights of goods and intellectual property , So that people are more motivated to innovate technology and set up enterprises .
As early as 19 century 50 years , The United States began to learn and absorb the advanced technology of Western Europe , And attracted a large number of immigrants . Not long after , The United States is not only more populous than Western European countries , And from an imitator to a pioneer of technological innovation . Thomas · Edison 、 Henry · Ford and other inventors and entrepreneurs quickly led the trend of the world's advanced technology and business organizations . The United States is still the leading innovator and economic superpower in the world , This is inseparable from the strong advantage of its population size .
The fundamental problem of economics is , How to make a country richer ？ Of course , This has nothing to do with a stable government 、 Protection of property rights 、 Good infrastructure 、 The financial system is sound 、 The education system is perfect 、 Trade openness and other factors are inseparable , But I finally found , What makes the gap between high-income countries and middle-income countries open , It is often the ability to innovate .
There are two types of innovation ： Adaptive innovation and frontier innovation . Adaptive innovation refers to the adjustment of existing technologies , To adapt to the local market environment . For example, the recipes and recipes of foreign fast food such as KFC are constantly adapting to the tastes of Chinese people . But a country wants to be a high-income country , It is not enough just to adjust the existing technology , Only from scratch , Carry out cutting-edge innovation , This is the only way for a strong country . In this book , The innovation ability that the author focuses on is the frontier innovation ability , It includes the following aspects ：
（1） Academic theory ;
（2） New technology 、 New technology 、 New products
（3） New business models and organizational forms
（4） Content creation ： music 、 The movie 、 Games etc. .
Innovation is becoming more and more important , Globalization has also made innovation more rewarding than ever . However , Innovation is becoming more and more difficult . There is data showing , The average age of patent applicants is increasing , Interdisciplinary probability is decreasing , This means that inventors are increasingly “ The old ”, And more and more professional . And now it is common for a patent to have twoorthree inventors .
Human knowledge is like a giant , It's getting bigger and bigger , The latter wanted to stand on the shoulders of giants , The difficulty factor is increasing with each passing day . And innovation is often accidental , Inspiration may come from the integration of knowledge from different disciplines . therefore , A good inventor should not only become an expert in his field , We should also cooperate well with researchers in other fields . Same thing , Successful entrepreneurs also need a variety of skills and work experience .
How to measure a country's innovation capability ？ From the perspective of investment , The indicators to measure innovation mainly include R & D expenditure and the number of researchers ; From an output perspective , These indicators mainly include the number of patents 、 The export of high-tech products and the number of academic publications .
2. How to promote innovation ？
Since innovation is so important to economic development , So how can we promote innovation ？ The country is unified and stable , The government attaches importance to education , The financial industry is smooth and so on , What are the other factors that drive innovation ？
The famous economist Michael · Porter points out that , A certain industry of a country wants to succeed , Four elements are required ： Endowment 、 demand 、 Parts industry and competition . The author thinks that , These elements all point to the population . A large population means a huge talent pool and a large local market , This satisfies the endowment and demand factors . The huge market can give birth to a more developed and complete parts industry , It can also cultivate more competitors . So in the book , The author summarizes the three demographic factors of innovation ：
① scale effect . Economies of scale are the result of specialization and division of labor , This means that the population should be used as a support . With the specialization and division of labor , Every company can focus on a more specific task , So it's more efficient . For innovation , Large countries have greater scale advantages . For example, China has the most advanced high-speed rail technology , It is because China has invested far more human and material resources in R & D than small countries . This scale advantage has played a decisive role in the Internet industry , Because the winners in the Internet industry are often the companies that attract a large number of customers first . Ctrip, China's leading Internet travel brand, can hire 5000 A software engineer to serve the Chinese market , by comparison , Japan has only one tenth of the Chinese market . therefore , Only a big country can have its own Internet companies . American Internet giants have not conquered China as they have conquered the rest of the world , Because China already has a larger Internet market than the United States .
② Aggregation effect . Besides the size of the population , The geographical distribution of the population is also important . The agglomeration effect of manufacturing industry is the result of the proximity of related enterprises . For example, the automobile city of Detroit in the United States , Nagoya, the automobile city of Japan . And the agglomeration effect of high-tech industries , It is the effect of gathering innovative talents . For example, Silicon Valley in the United States . There are more enterprises in big cities , It can better match talents with enterprises , The high mobility of talents also reduces the cost of entrepreneurship . Again , Big cities can also provide more opportunities for people with different academic backgrounds to work together , This will further enhance the advantages of the city . therefore , We should not restrict the development scale of big cities . As long as the planning is reasonable , Beijing 、 The population of Shanghai and other mega cities can still grow .
③ Aging effect . Why is age so important to a country's innovation ？ Because generally speaking , Cognitive speed （ The ability to absorb new information ） stay 20 It will drop rapidly after the age of , The most creative age is 30~40 year , Because in this age group , People are more experienced , And still full of energy , So this is also the best age to start a business . The author liangjianzhang is in 29 At the age of, he founded Ctrip with three other co founders （ The other two are 33 Age and 36 year ）. If entrepreneurs are relatively young , They will be more willing to take risks , More receptive to disruptive ideas , Therefore, innovation is more likely to occur in younger systems . There will be an aging country “ Blocking effect ”, That is, the older generation will hinder the innovation and entrepreneurship vitality of young people . The number of young people is small , There is not much say in the enterprise , There are fewer opportunities for empowerment , Promotion is also slow （ Because senior management has been occupied by older employees ）, So it's hard for them to innovate and start a business .
in summary , For a country , The problem of innovation is also the problem of population .
The current situation of world population and innovation
1. Japan ： Typical of economic aging
20 century 50 S to 80 years , Japan's economy is the most dynamic among developed countries , In the electronics industry 、 Automation, industrial equipment and many other fields are leaders in innovation , But then 20 century 90 years , As the population ages dramatically , Japan has become the oldest country on average in the world , The economic fate is also rapidly reversed .
Now in Japan , On average, every worker has to support 0.8 An old man , Many more than 65 The old man is still working . Usually , Japanese enterprises still take the following measures when considering employee promotion “ arrange in order of seniority ” The system of , When middle-aged or older people are in the majority , The promotion of young employees will slow down , This has led to the aging of Japanese enterprises .
In the previous chapters, we have discussed that the best age to start a business is around 30 , But in an aging society , The number of young people in their thirties is not only small , Social status is also low , Therefore, the entrepreneurial enthusiasm is not high , Capital is not enough , The innovation vitality of the whole society is not high , The economy will also be aging . Therefore, Japan is a typical case of economic aging .
2. The United States ： A superpower of innovation
We mentioned in the previous chapter , The United States in 19 Since the middle of the th century, technology and a large number of immigrants have been absorbed , Form a huge scale advantage , Thus becoming an economic and innovative superpower . Now the question is ： Can the United States block the competition from China ？
The author thinks that , The United States will continue to maintain the advantage of innovation in the future . Because the fertility rate in the United States is the highest in all developed countries , On this basis , The United States still keeps attracting 50 ten thousand ~100 Million immigrants . Among the immigrant population of the United States 、 The proportion of doctoral degrees is much higher than that of the Native American population , The advantage of immigration is also a divine help for the United States to maintain its status as a superpower of innovation .
3. The European ： Past glory and present embarrassment
ad locum , The author analyzes several major European countries , That is, English 、 Law 、 German Three Kingdoms . All three of them are old capitalist powers in history , But for now , Its commodity and labor markets are much smaller than those in the United States 、 China 、 Countries like India and Japan . Besides , The low fertility rate has accelerated the aging of the population in Europe , The immigration policy cannot attract more talents with innovative advantages , All this will make the European powers face severe challenges in innovation .
4. India ： A cutting-edge force worthy of being valued
India is the same as China once was , It has a broad and profound ancient civilization , It is also experiencing the inevitable problems in the development of all poor countries , For example, environmental pollution 、 Poor infrastructure, etc . But according to the results of the author's investigation , India has a stable government 、 Enough investment in education 、 A growing export industry 、 A growing and younger population , So India is a promising new power .
5. China ： Risks and opportunities coexist
In history, the Chinese nation is a nation full of innovative spirit , The basic quality of China's population is no inferior to that of any other country . The large population is the advantage of China's economic and technological development , Because scientific research talents and R & D investment have corresponding scale , China's scientific and technological development has been able to advance by leaps and bounds . When resources no longer dominate economic development , China's economy is also transforming from manufacturing to service . Medical care 、 tourism 、 Finance 、 The Internet, education and other industries are developing rapidly .
Estimated from 2040 From the year onwards , China will suffer from the rapid impact of aging . If we adopt the policy of encouraging procreation as soon as possible 、 Cultivate a social culture conducive to fertility 、 Promote urbanization and big urbanization, etc , China is expected to become the center of the world economy and science and technology , Push human civilization to a new height .
The author demonstrates a truth in the book of population innovation ： The degree of economic development of a country depends on its ability to innovate , And the ability to innovate fundamentally depends on the population , Including population size 、 The degree of geographical aggregation and the age structure of the population . The Chinese are smart 、 diligence 、 Same language 、 Respecting teachers and teaching 、 Pursue secular success . If China can sustain the world 20% Population , Maintain an absolute advantage in market size and number of talents , Supported by strong economic strength , China's science and technology will still make rapid progress , So as to further consolidate China's economic status .