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The fine bamboo makes the bird cage, and the life makes a new appearance

2022-05-06 09:47:35Knowledge hall

He fan, an economist, has set himself a Flag: use 30 Years of time , One book a year , Record the development of Chinese society .
The first three books in this series are called “ The trilogy of the indigenous era ”——《 Variable : See the small trend of Chinese society 》《 Variable : Deduce the basic plate of China's economy 》《 Variable : Survival strategies in the local era 》.
2021 end of the year , The fourth book 《 Variable : The rise of great powers 》 published . The author focuses on the hot issues in China's economic trend in the past year , Such as rural revitalization 、“ Specialization and innovation ”、 Internet consolidation 、 local debt 、 Autopilot 、 Aging society, etc , Through research and thinking , Put forward a breaking idea —— To move .
One 、 What is Teng
Teng is a go term , It refers to the situation when the enemy is strong and we are weak in the local battle of go , Adopt a light and flexible lower method , avoid the solid and strike the weak , Change from passive to active .
When at a disadvantage , Find a break point first , Take advantage of it , Form a counter force , Wait patiently for the opportunity to reverse , This is the strategy of moving .
Use the move strategy , You need to fight according to your own ideas , Regain the initiative , Avoid being led by the nose by your opponent .
Use the move strategy , You need to measure your strength from a dynamic perspective , We should have the courage to sacrifice the periphery to defend our core interests , In exchange for time to cultivate new forces , Dormant standby .
Use the move strategy , need Look at the big picture , Don't stick to solving all problems at once , Don't care about winning or losing every game , Always focus on the final total win rate .
Two 、 Why move
If there is a problem that can't be solved , That's probably because the problem itself is wrong .
Why is autopilot so difficult ? The author believes that the reason is that the topic is too difficult . People expect the goal to be in open road conditions 、 In complex road situations , Let AI completely replace human drivers .
In the face of the situation of delayed progress , The author suggests that it's better to change ideas , Study the smart way first , Instead of studying smart cars first .
That is to build a highway that only uses self driving trucks , After the automatic truck formation gets off the highway, the driver takes over the driving . Through this kind of “ Demonstration road ” Trial and error and accumulation , Run out of data 、 Iterative techniques , When all aspects of technology are mature , Then promote driverless to passenger cars .
The purpose of moving , It's about buying time .
Hu Xueyan, a businessman in the late Qing Dynasty, said when talking about business classics : Eight jars and seven covers , Cover up, cover up, and don't wear help , This is business .
Hu Xueyan didn't make the truth clear , If Eight jars and seven covers , Just rely on cover to cover to do not wear help , It could be a Ponzi scheme .
The real solution is to move , Use the time you have gained to make a new cover , To really solve the problem .
The essence of moving , It's time for space .
3、 ... and 、 How to move
There are three main strategies to move : Looking for the breaking point 、 I hit my 、 Change constraints .
1. Looking for the breaking point
Many people have a one-sided understanding of competition , Think that competition is a single dimension , Therefore, the promotion of major shopping malls is basically price reduction 、 Gift giving , Maybe there are small features but no big differences .
The author thinks that , Competition is often multidimensional . Like running , In terms of speed, marathoners can't compare with sprinters , On endurance, sprinters can't compete with marathoners , But people never discuss which is better Which one weak , Because running match Far more than one .
Breakthrough pair “ Competition is single ” Erroneous understanding , See the multidimensional nature of competition , This is the basis for finding the breaking point . Tianji horse racing is a typical example .
Tian Ji's three grades of horses are a little worse than king Qi Wei , If it's a one-dimensional competitive thinking , Race with horses of the same grade , The only hope of winning is to find a way to make Tian Ji's horse run faster , But this approach is difficult to work . But Sun Bin used high-grade horses to PK A horse of a lower rank , Use your strengths to deal with each other's weaknesses , Although I lost a game , But he won the final victory by two wins in three sets .
Multidimensional competitive thinking , Can get us through “ Comparative advantage ”, Occupy a relatively favorable position .
The breaking point can also be an imbalance point of the opponent . When the opponent is stronger 、 The more ambitious , The more likely there is a gap between his goals and reality , The higher your eyes and the lower your hands, the easier it is to look at one thing and lose the other . His flaw 、 His life gate , That's our breaking point .
It should be noted that , Try to find the breaking point from the most handy things you do , In this way, we can use relatively small efforts , Release greater advantages and potential .
2. I hit my
Early period of the liberation war , The strategy formulated by the Kuomintang is to seize important cities , Control traffic lines , Let the Communist army have nowhere to live . The Communist Party's strategy is just the opposite , Regardless of the gains and losses of one city and one place , insist “ You hit you , I hit my ; Fight if you win , Run if you can't win ”, Take the initiative to withdraw from the city when the enemy attacks , Looking for fighters in motion , Concentrate superior forces and destroy the enemy's effective forces , In just one year, the strength of both sides has been reversed .
Strength is a non exclusive thing , It's a constantly changing energy , It is a life of repeated reincarnation . When we are at a disadvantage in a certain field , You might as well give in 、 Give up bravely , Turn around and open up a new battlefield , A battlefield played according to our rules of the game .
Taobao's success , Is to abandon the tradition Of Offline sales , Created a new model of directly linking buyers and sellers across the country through the Internet , The seller reduced advertising and booth fees , The buyer underpaid the middleman's profit , It has benefited both sides , It has overturned the rules and pattern of the retail industry .
3. Change constraints
People always like to look for successful experience in history , It turns out that there is no experience that can succeed forever .
Successful experience is often the optimal solution under the conditions at that time , But in reality Too many constraints 、 Too many changes , To meet every constraint , And want to ask for the optimal solution , This is a dangerous idea .
A lot of times , The problem can't be solved , Not because the objective function is not clear , But because of the wrong constraints .
When the financial crisis happened , The dilemma faced by most enterprises is the lack of liquidity , There are short-term difficulties in capital turnover , Not insolvent . But once the enterprise has capital turnover problems , Creditors will come to collect their debts , Form a run tide , Make it harder for enterprises to get through difficulties . If you can give me more time , Many enterprises can survive the crisis .
If there are some problems that cannot be solved now , You might as well relax your time constraints , Drag first , Let's solve another problem first , Wait for the time to come back and deal with .
Many people are interested in the last century 90 The wave of laid-off state-owned enterprises in the s has a deep memory , Urban traffic is often interrupted by the collective petition of laid-off workers . In fact as early as 80 years , Many state-owned enterprises are already heavily in debt , The banks have also accumulated a large number of non-performing loans . If you deal with it at that time , May cause social unrest .
Get into 90 s , Private Enterprise 、 Foreign funded enterprises are booming , The number of jobs in society has increased , The proportion of state-owned enterprises in the economic system has decreased , At this time, the state began to reform state-owned enterprises , Although it also caused some contradictions , But the cost of reform is much less , The impact on society is also much less .
Some problems are really serious , But it has not reached the level of crisis , You can also strive for space to move , Create more opportunities , Get more Time , Take it easy to solve .
Taking a step back is not necessarily boundless , But it must be a vast sea and sky .
Four 、 At the end
Economist Albert · Hirschman said , When the enterprise 、 organization 、 system 、 When people in society become dissatisfied , They will choose to quit ( For example, I don't like this restaurant , You can choose another one ), Or call for ( Express your demands within the organization ).
The author of this book points out that , People actually have a third strategy to choose , That is to move , Transfer between small organizations within large organizations .
The advantage of the move strategy is , Individuals can have more choices , Small organizations will become more dynamic , Large organizations will become more stable .
Enterprise , Society or not , To avoid the fate of decline , Continue to be brilliant , We should learn to move ;
Personally , The team , To break through the constraints of the environment , Continue to create good results , Need to learn to move .
To move , Can create opportunities , Can bring confidence ;
To move , Able to cope with the unknown , Can go to the future .

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